San Bernardino County home purchases fell 32 percent in a year after a 52 percent jump.
In fact, local home prices are down 1.5% after July’s fourth-lowest sales on record.
Here’s what my trusty spreadsheet found in a DQNews report on closed transactions in San Bernardino County in July…
Sales swing
Total: 2,237 San Bernardino County single family, condominium, existing and new construction homes sold. That’s the worst of the 35 July 4ths since 1988.
One month change It is down 22% from June. Since 1988, sales have decreased by 62% in July and have decreased by an average of 3% in June.
12 months change; The 32 percent decline was the largest decline since 1988 in the 21st quarter (or only 5% worse month).
Year to date: A 13 percent decrease compared to 2021.
The pre-epidemic: July sales were 17 percent below the July average of 2,694, 2010-2019.
Price patterns
The medium: $515,000 for all residences, down 1% month over month, up 13% over 12 months. Register SB High? It was set at $523,000 in May. Therefore, prices are 1.5% off the maximum.
One month trend: Since 1988, the average July price has been comparable to June.
One year trend: The smallest increase in 17 months. 72 percent of recent gains are the highest in 12-month periods since 1988.
Minimum Pay: $103,000 at 20%, $12,000 per year.
An era of plague? Since February 2020, 14 price records have been broken.
Key SB pieces
Existing single-family homes: 1,845 sold, down 33% year over year. Average $500,000 – 11% increase in 12 months.
Condominiums available: 136 sales, down 18% in 12 months. An average of 457,500 – a 13% increase year over year.
Newly built: Builders sold 256 new homes, down 31 percent in a year. An average of 642,750 – a 22% increase in 12 months.
Constructive Share: 11.4% of sales compared to 11.3% a year ago.
Big picture
Southern California: 16,390 homes – sold in six counties, down 19% month over month and down 35% last year, DK News reports. The region’s median price of $740,000 is down 1% per month, and up 9% over 12 months.
Rates: How expensive has money become? 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rates averaged 5.39% in the three months ended July, compared with 2.94% a year ago. This means -25% less purchasing power for house hunters. (Major drops have occurred only 1% since 1971.)
pain of payment; Price changes mean a buyer would pay an average of $2,310 per month for a San Bernardino home with an average price of $515,000, compared to $455,000 12 months ago. Therefore, prices increased by 13 percent and house payments increased by 52 percent.
Low pay $103,000 for 20% last month, $12,000 per year.
What are sellers thinking? New listings are down 21-22% in Los Angeles and Orange counties and down 4.5% in the Inland Empire, Redfin said.
What buyers are thinking. According to Redfin, 20.6% of July escrows fell in the Inland Empire, followed by 18% in Los Angeles County and 16.4% in Orange County.
Compatibility: A hypothetical first-time buyer in Southern California would need an income of at least $111,600 to qualify for the $3,720 monthly payment required for a $680,000 home. And this bill says 36% of the state’s households will meet that requirement by the spring of 2022 — down from 43% a year ago.
Jonathan Lansner is a business columnist for Southern California Newsgroup. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com.
