Orange County home prices are down 5.1% from peak July sales.
Essentially, Orange County home purchases dropped 38% year-over-year as house hunters feared 48% higher mortgage payments.
Here’s what my trusty spreadsheet found in a DQNews report on closed home purchases in Orange County in July…
sale
Total: 2,277 Orange County single family, condominium, existing and new construction homes sold. This was the slowest No. 1 since 1988 from 35 July.
Southern California home price growth slows as July sales fall to 27-year low
One month change It is down 18% from June. Since 1988, sales have decreased 76% in July and have shown an average decrease of 6.3% from June.
12 months change; Down 38% – No. 8’s biggest drop since 1988 (or only 2% worst months.)
Year to date: A 26 percent reduction compared to 2021.
The pre-epidemic: July sales were 30 percent below the July 2010-2019 average of 3,263.
Prices
The medium: For all homes, $1 million was down 2.4 percent in the month and up 11 percent in the 12 months. Register OC High? It was set at $1,054,000 in May. Therefore, prices are 5.1% lower than the maximum.
One month trend: It is down 2.4%. Since 1988, the average July rate has fallen 31% of the time. with 0.5% discount on average.
One year trend: The smallest increase in 16 months. But since 1988, profits have risen 68 percent over a 12-month period.
Minimum Pay: $200,000 at 20%, $19,000 per year.
An era of plague? Since February 2020, 17 price records have been broken.
Key pieces
Existing single-family homes: 1,457 were sold, down 39% year over year. The median of $1,135,000 was up 11% over 12 months.
Condominiums available: 637 sales, down 41% in 12 months. The median of $705,000 increased 9 percent annually.
Newly built: Builders sold 183 new homes, down 4% in a year. An average of $1,566,250 was up 21% over 12 months.
Constructive Share: 8% of sales compared to 5.2% a year ago.
Big picture
Southern California: 16,390 homes – sold in six counties, down 19% month-on-month and down 35% last year, DKNews reports. The region’s median price of $740,000 is down 1% per month, and up 9% over 12 months.
Rates: How expensive has money become? 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rates averaged 5.39% in the three months ended July, compared with 2.94% a year ago. This means about 25% less purchasing power for house hunters. (Major drops have occurred only 1% since 1971.)
pain of payment; The price change means a buyer would pay $4,486 a month for a $1,000,000 July median home in Orange, compared to $3,028 a month earlier for a $905,000 median. So prices increase by 10% and house payments jump by 48%.
Minimum Pay: OC’s 20% discount was $200,000 last month, up $19,000 a year.
What are sellers thinking? New listings were down 211%-22% in Los Angeles and Orange counties, and down 4.5% in the Inland Empire, Redfin said.
What buyers are thinking. According to Redfin, 20.6% of July escrows fell in the Inland Empire, followed by 18% in Los Angeles County and 16.4% in Orange County.
Compatibility: A hypothetical first-time buyer in Southern California would need an income of at least $111,600 to qualify for the $3,720 monthly payment required for a $680,000 home. And this bill says 36% of the state’s households will meet that requirement by the spring of 2022 — down from 43% a year ago.
Jonathan Lansner is a business columnist for Southern California Newsgroup. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com.
